An individual with wealth ₹2,00,000 faces a loss of ₹50,000 with probability 0.2 (else 0). Find the maximum premium \(G^*\) the individual would pay for full insurance under linear, logarithmic and exponential utility.
To compute the maximum acceptable premium under three utility functions and compare the implied risk aversion.
Applying it:
Blank working table (\(a = 0.00002\)):
| Utility | Max premium \(G^*\) | Risk premium |
|---|---|---|
| Linear (risk-neutral) | ||
| Logarithmic | ||
| Exponential |
Linear: \(G^* = E(X) = 0.2\times 50000 = \text{₹}10{,}000\).
Logarithmic: \(E[\ln(w-X)] = 0.8\ln(200000) + 0.2\ln(150000) = 9.7649 + 2.3837 = 12.1485\); \(w - G^* = e^{12.1485} = 1{,}88{,}817\), so \(G^* = \text{₹}11{,}183\).
Exponential: RHS \(= -0.8e^{-4} - 0.2e^{-3} = -0.02461\), so \(0.00002(w - G^*) = -\ln(0.02461) = 3.7046\), giving \(w - G^* = 1{,}85{,}230\) and \(G^* = \text{₹}14{,}770\).
| Utility | Max premium \(G^*\) | Risk premium |
|---|---|---|
| Linear (risk-neutral) | ₹10,000 | ₹0 |
| Logarithmic | ₹11,183 | ₹1,183 |
| Exponential | ₹14,770 | ₹4,770 |
The maximum premium rises with risk aversion: ₹10,000 (linear, pure premium) < ₹11,183 (log, mild aversion) < ₹14,770 (exponential, strong aversion).
(a) Annual claim count \(N \sim\) Poisson(5) with each claim a fixed ₹10,000 — find \(E(S)\) and \(\text{Var}(S)\). (b) Claim size \(X \sim\) Exponential with mean ₹20,000 over 10 independent policies — find \(E(S)\), \(\text{Var}(S)\) and \(P(S > \text{₹}2{,}50{,}000)\).
To compute the mean, variance and a tail probability of aggregate claims in a discrete and a continuous setting.
Applying it:
Blank working table:
| Quantity | Discrete | Continuous |
|---|---|---|
| \(E(S)\) | ||
| \(\text{Var}(S)\) | ||
| \(\sigma_S\) | ||
| Tail probability | — |
| Quantity | Discrete | Continuous |
|---|---|---|
| \(E(S)\) | ₹50,000 | ₹2,00,000 |
| \(\text{Var}(S)\) | \(5\times10^8\) | \(4\times10^9\) |
| \(\sigma_S\) | ₹22,361 | ₹63,246 |
| Tail probability | — | \(P(Z > 0.79) = 0.215\) |
Discrete: \(E(S) = \text{₹}50{,}000,\; \sigma_S = \text{₹}22{,}361\). Continuous: \(E(S) = \text{₹}2{,}00{,}000,\; \sigma_S = \text{₹}63{,}246\), and \(P(S > \text{₹}2{,}50{,}000) \approx 0.215\).
In the collective risk model \(S = X_1 + \cdots + X_N\) (with \(N\) random and \(X_i\) iid, independent of \(N\)), take \(N \sim\) Poisson(100) and \(X \sim\) Exponential with mean 5000. Find \(E(S),\; \text{Var}(S)\), a 20 %-loaded premium, and the probability the premium is exceeded.
To apply the compound-Poisson formulas for the mean and variance of aggregate claims and evaluate a loaded premium.
Applying it:
Blank working table:
| Quantity | Value |
|---|---|
| \(E(S)\) | |
| \(\text{Var}(S)\) | |
| \(\sigma_S\) | |
| Premium \(P = 1.2E(S)\) | |
| \(P(S > P)\) |
\(E(X) = 5000,\; E(X^2) = 2\times 5000^2 = 5\times 10^7\).
| Quantity | Value |
|---|---|
| \(E(S) = 100\times 5000\) | ₹5,00,000 |
| \(\text{Var}(S) = 100\times 5\times10^7\) | \(5\times10^9\) |
| \(\sigma_S\) | ₹70,711 |
| Premium \(P = 1.2\times 5{,}00{,}000\) | ₹6,00,000 |
| \(P(S > P) = P(Z > 1.41)\) | 0.079 |
\(E(S) = \text{₹}5{,}00{,}000,\; \sigma_S = \text{₹}70{,}711\). With a 20 % loading the premium is ₹6,00,000, and the probability that claims exceed it is only about 7.9 %.
A portfolio has 200 policies; each pays ₹1,00,000 on a claim with probability 0.01. Find \(E(S)\), \(\text{Var}(S)\) and a 95 % upper premium.
To compute aggregate-claim moments in the individual risk model and set a premium at the 95 % confidence level.
Applying it:
Blank working table:
| Quantity | Value |
|---|---|
| \(E(X_i)\) / \(\text{Var}(X_i)\) | |
| \(E(S)\) | |
| \(\text{Var}(S)\) / \(\sigma_S\) | |
| 95 % premium |
| Quantity | Value |
|---|---|
| \(E(X_i)\) / \(\text{Var}(X_i)\) | 1000 / \(9.9\times10^7\) |
| \(E(S) = 200\times 1000\) | ₹2,00,000 |
| \(\text{Var}(S) = 1.98\times10^{10}\) / \(\sigma_S\) | ₹1,40,712 |
| 95 % premium \(= 200000 + 1.645\times 140712\) | ₹4,31,472 |
\(E(S) = \text{₹}2{,}00{,}000,\; \sigma_S = \text{₹}1{,}40{,}712\); a premium of about ₹4,31,472 covers aggregate claims with 95 % confidence.
For a compound-Poisson surplus \(U(t) = u + ct - S(t)\) with \(\lambda = 100\), \(X \sim\) Exp(mean 5000) and loading \(\theta = 0.2\), find the ultimate ruin probability \(\psi(u)\) for \(u = 30{,}000\) and \(u = 1{,}00{,}000\).
To use the closed-form ruin probability for exponential claims and interpret the effect of the initial surplus.
Applying it:
Blank working table:
| Initial surplus \(u\) | \(\psi(u)\) |
|---|---|
| 30,000 | |
| 1,00,000 |
\(c = 1.2\times 100\times 5000 = \text{₹}6{,}00{,}000\) per unit time; with \(\theta = 0.2,\; E(X) = 5000\), \(\psi(u) = (1/1.2)\,e^{-u/30000} = 0.833\,e^{-u/30000}\).
| Initial surplus \(u\) | \(\psi(u)\) |
|---|---|
| 30,000 | \(0.833\,e^{-1} = 0.306\) |
| 1,00,000 | \(0.833\,e^{-3.33} = 0.030\) |
With ₹30,000 initial surplus the long-run ruin probability is about 31 %; raising the surplus to ₹1,00,000 cuts it to about 3 % — larger reserves greatly improve solvency.
(a) An annuity-certain pays ₹1,00,000 at each year-end for 20 years at \(i = 6\%\). (b) A whole-life annuity-due for \((x=60)\) with \(\ddot a_{60} = 12.5\) at \(i = 5\%\) pays ₹50,000/year. Find the present values, including the monthly and continuous approximations.
To compute present values of an annuity-certain and a life annuity, and the standard monthly and continuous adjustments.
Applying it:
Blank working table:
| Contract | Annuity factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|
| Annuity-certain (20 yr, 6 %) | ||
| Whole-life annuity-due | 12.5 | |
| Monthly approximation | ||
| Continuous approximation |
\(v = 1/1.06 = 0.9434,\; v^{20} = 0.3118\), so \(a_{\overline{20}|} = (1 - 0.3118)/0.06 = 11.4699\).
| Contract | Annuity factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|
| Annuity-certain (20 yr, 6 %) | 11.4699 | ₹11,47,000 |
| Whole-life annuity-due | 12.5 | ₹6,25,000 |
| Monthly approximation | 12.5 − 0.458 = 12.042 | ₹6,02,100 |
| Continuous approximation | 12.5 − 0.5 = 12.0 | ₹6,00,000 |
The 20-year annuity-certain is worth ₹11,47,000; the whole-life pension of ₹50,000/year is worth ₹6,25,000 (annual), ₹6,02,100 (monthly) or ₹6,00,000 (continuous).
From a life table at \(i = 5\%,\; x = 30\): \(A_{30} = 0.105,\; \ddot a_{30} = 18.85,\; A^{1}_{30:\overline{20}|} = 0.022,\; \ddot a_{30:\overline{20}|} = 12.93,\; {}_{20}E_{30} = 0.355,\; \ddot a_{30:\overline{10}|} = 7.87\). For a face value of ₹10,00,000 compute the net annual premium of whole-life, 20-year term, 20-year endowment and 10-year limited-payment whole-life policies.
To compute net single and net annual premiums for the four standard insurance schemes.
Applying it:
Blank working table:
| Scheme | \(A\) | Annuity | Net annual premium |
|---|---|---|---|
| Whole-life | 0.105 | 18.85 | |
| 20-yr term | 0.022 | 12.93 | |
| 20-yr endowment | 12.93 | ||
| 10-pay whole-life | 0.105 | 7.87 |
| Scheme | \(A\) | Annuity | Net annual premium |
|---|---|---|---|
| Whole-life | 0.105 | 18.85 | 10,00,000×0.105/18.85 = ₹5,570 |
| 20-yr term | 0.022 | 12.93 | 22,000/12.93 = ₹1,701 |
| 20-yr endowment | 0.022 + 0.355 = 0.377 | 12.93 | 3,77,000/12.93 = ₹29,157 |
| 10-pay whole-life | 0.105 | 7.87 | 1,05,000/7.87 = ₹13,342 |
Whole-life ₹5,570; term ₹1,701 (cheapest — no survival benefit); endowment ₹29,157 (dearest — guaranteed maturity payout); 10-pay whole-life ₹13,342 (about 2.4× ordinary whole-life, since premiums are paid over only 10 years).
Using the life-table extract below, compute survival/death probabilities, the force of mortality at age 60, and fit a Gompertz law to \(\mu(50) = 0.005,\; \mu(70) = 0.030\).
| Age x | lx | dx | qx | px |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 97500 | 140 | 0.00144 | 0.99856 |
| 31 | 97360 | 146 | 0.00150 | 0.99850 |
| 40 | 95800 | 240 | 0.00250 | 0.99750 |
| 50 | 92300 | 520 | 0.00563 | 0.99437 |
| 60 | 85000 | 1200 | 0.01412 | 0.98588 |
To read survival probabilities from a life table, approximate the force of mortality, and fit a Gompertz mortality law.
Applying it:
Blank working table:
| Quantity | Value |
|---|---|
| \({}_{10}p_{50} = l_{60}/l_{50}\) | |
| \({}_{20}q_{30} = 1 - l_{50}/l_{30}\) | |
| \(\mu_{60} \approx -\ln p_{60}\) | |
| Gompertz \(c = (\mu_{70}/\mu_{50})^{1/20}\) | |
| Gompertz \(B = \mu_{50}/c^{50}\) |
| Quantity | Value |
|---|---|
| \({}_{10}p_{50} = 85000/92300\) | 0.9209 |
| \({}_{20}q_{30} = 1 - 92300/97500\) | 0.0533 |
| \(\mu_{60} \approx -\ln(0.98588)\) | 0.01422 |
| \(c = (0.030/0.005)^{1/20} = 6^{1/20}\) | 1.0937 |
| \(c^{50} = 6^{2.5} = 88.18,\; B = 0.005/88.18\) | \(5.67\times10^{-5}\) |
So the fitted law is \(\mu(x) = 5.67\times 10^{-5}\times 1.0937^{x}\). Adding a constant term \(A\) gives the Makeham law \(\mu(x) = A + Bc^x\) when accidental (age-independent) risk matters. For \(\bar A_x\) under Gompertz there is no closed form; evaluate \(\bar A_x = \int_0^\infty v^t\,{}_tp_x\,\mu(x+t)\,dt\) numerically (Simpson's rule, spreadsheet or R).
\({}_{10}p_{50} = 0.9209\) and \({}_{20}q_{30} = 0.0533\); the force of mortality at 60 is about 0.0142/year, and the Gompertz fit is \(\mu(x) = 5.67\times 10^{-5}\times 1.0937^{x}\).